Germany’s booming cannabis market, which Prohibition Partners now estimates to be worth around €670m, is entering uncertain and potentially treacherous territory.
As the landmark CanG Act approaches its second year, it has become a highly charged and increasingly divisive issue politically, culturally, and medically.
With the recent ousting of the Traffic Light Coalition, responsible for creating and pushing through partial cannabis legalisation, the new Christian Democrat (CDU) led coalition has ramped up its anti-cannabis rhetoric and has consistently and publicly threatened to restrict or even roll back the changes brought about over the last 18 months.
The first interim report on the impact of the reforms has now been published, marking the first in a string of upcoming events which could define the future of the industry.
The findings of the ‘Ekocan’ report have already caused a stir among commentators on both sides of the aisle, with some suggesting it points to a wholesale failure to meet its intended goal of protecting consumers and reducing the illicit market, and others suggesting it shows positive progress at such an early stage.
With the preliminary report due to be debated in the Bundestag today, fireworks from all sides are anticipated. Through the smoke and heated rhetoric, however, the CDU will be listening closely. To date, it has spoken of tough measures to crack down on the market, but has held off on implementing any such measures until the results of the evaluation are clear. As such, this is a critical marker of what is to come.
What is Ekocan, and why is it important?
The Ekocan (Evaluation des Konsumcannabisgesetzes) project is the first of three federally mandated assessments of the Konsumcannabisgesetz (KCanG), which came into force on April 01, 2024.
Led by the University Medical Centre Hamburg-Eppendorf, in cooperation with a consortium of research institutes, the evaluation was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Health and runs from January 2025 to April 2028, with additional reports examining the effects in more detail due to be published in April 2026 and April 2028.
Notably, Ekocan is looking specifically at the KCanG reforms, which dealt with ‘the private cultivation of cannabis by adults and communal, non-commercial cultivation for personal consumption in cultivation associations in Germany’.
Its evaluation, therefore, focuses on the non-medical cannabis market, though the report notes some overlap where patients obtain cannabis via prescriptions. Key areas of investigation include patterns of use, perceived availability, cannabis-related health incidents, youth welfare cases, cannabis-related crime, as well as overall market size, price levels and potency trends.
As we reported in July, the government has published proposals looking to restrict online prescriptions in the medical cannabis market, among other measures aimed at curbing the runaway growth of the sector.
While the Health Minister Nina Warken has repeatedly told local media that she intends to ban the mail order delivery of cannabis flowers and require patients to attend in-person consultations, her bold statements are thought to be more political signalling than a legislative promise, especially considering any changes must get the green light from coalition partners the SPD, who were the architects of the reforms.
Meanwhile, the new Federal Government Commissioner for Drugs Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck has taken a more measured stance, committing to evidence-based, scientifically grounded policymaking, explicitly referencing the agreement in the CDU–SPD coalition deal to await the evaluation before making further decisions.
As part of the two parties coalition agreement, it was stipulated that any further action on cannabis should be dependent on the results of the evaluation.
These initial findings are already shaping the debate. Yet the evaluation focuses on the KCanG, whereas proposed restrictions target the MedCanG, raising criticism that the evidence base and the policy agenda are misaligned.
German medical cannabis clinic Bloomwell Group’s CEO Niklas Kouparanis said: “It is baffling to me that the legislature wants to restrict the Medical Cannabis Act without giving the law its own scientific review – and to return sick people to the system based on a ‘perceived’ abuse, in reality completely arbitrarily and purely for ideological reasons.”
What did the report find?
The Ekocan study combines survey data from both the general population and cannabis users (through studies such as DEBRA and KonCanG) with routine data from health, social services and law enforcement. Several complementary projects, including AMoCan, POLCAN and OBCAN, also contribute to the analysis.
Market Development
- In 2024, total demand for both medical and recreational cannabis was estimated at 670–823 tonnes.
- Around 9–13% of demand was covered by medical cannabis, while less than 0.1% came from cultivation associations. The rest came from private home-growing and illegal sources .
- Social supply (sharing among peers) remains central, mixing legal and illegal origins. Home-grown and pharmacy sources are becoming more important, but exact legal vs illegal shares cannot be determined .
- Home-growing is the cheapest option; medical cannabis is cheaper on average than association-grown, social supply or black-market cannabis .
- THC concentrations in legal sources, especially medical cannabis, are higher than in black-market cannabis .
- Early signs suggest the legal share of the market is growing while the black-market share is shrinking, though not rapidly. Canada’s experience (78% legal share after 4 years) shows this shift is gradual .
Youth Protection
- No major change in prevention programme use among young people .
- Child welfare referrals related to cannabis have decreased since legalisation .
- 40–43% of young people still consider cannabis “easy to obtain” — similar to pre-legalisation levels .
- Youth use has been declining since 2019, and this trend has continued after legalisation .
- About 10% of young users show risky consumption (daily or near-daily), unchanged by legalisation .
- Age of first use (15–16 years) is stable .
- Unintended intoxications in children are extremely rare .
- Data is insufficient for a full picture, but the initial trend suggests no increase in youth consumption problems .
Health Protection (Adults)
- Prevention programmes for adults: No notable change in uptake .
- Adult use prevalence: Slight increase in lifetime and recent use, but no evidence of a surge post-legalisation .
- Risky consumption among adults: concentrated in frequent users; wastewater monitoring confirms stable or slightly rising levels .
- Cannabis-related health problems: Data (emergency calls, hospitalisations) shows no major increase so far, though higher THC levels in legal products may pose future risks .
- Traffic safety: Initial data shows no clear rise in cannabis-related accidents, but monitoring is ongoing .
- Overall, the report concludes that the first year of legalisation has had little measurable effect on health protection .
Cannabis-Related Crime
- Recorded cannabis offences have decreased, especially consumption-related offences .
- Police data shows fewer possession cases, reflecting the new legal thresholds .
- Evaluation of administrative offences (fines, minor breaches) is incomplete but will follow in the next stages .
- Organised crime impacts cannot yet be assessed .
Possession and Sharing Limits
- Most average consumption and cultivation amounts fall within legal possession limits .
- Some self-reported breaches of possession/sharing rules exist, but these are limited in scale .
- Enforcement practices vary locally; further monitoring is needed to see whether rules are practical or lead to unnecessary sanctions .
Overall Conclusions (so far)
- Legal supply channels are expanding, though still a minority share of the total market.
- Youth use continues to decline, and there is no evidence of increased harm among minors.
- Adult use is stable, with no major surge in risky consumption or health emergencies.
- Crime linked to cannabis has decreased, mainly due to fewer possession offences.
- The black market persists, but early evidence suggests a gradual shift towards legal sources.
- The main long-term risks flagged are high THC concentrations and the still-limited capacity of cultivation associations.
This article was originally published by Business of Cannabis and is reprinted here with permission.
The post Germany Publishes First Data on Cannabis Reforms – Here’s What You Need to Know appeared first on Cannabis Health News.
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Author: Business of Cannabis
